Maryborough – QLD 2020

ALP 2.5% vs ON

Incumbent MP
Bruce Saunders, since 2015.

Geography
Central Queensland. Maryborough covers most of Fraser Coast Regional Council, as well as a small part of Gympie LGA. A majority of the population lives in the Maryborough urban area.

History
The seat of Maryborough has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was dominated by the ALP for most of the twentieth century but has been dominated by independents from the late 1990s until 2012.

The ALP had held Maryborough continuously from 1932 until 1971, when the seat was lost to the Liberal Party’s Gilbert Alison.

Alison held the seat until his defeat in 1977 by the ALP’s Brendan Hanson.

Hansen served two terms before losing to Alison, who was now running in 1983 as a National Party candidate.

Alison held the seat for two more terms, serving briefly as a minister in the Cooper government in late 1989 before losing his seat in 1989.

The seat was held from 1989 to 1998 by the ALP’s Bob Dollin.

Dollin lost in 1998 to One Nation’s John Kingston. Kingston quit One Nation in 1999 but managed to win re-election in 2001 as an independent. He retired in 2003 citing poor health.

The 2003 Maryborough by-election was won by another independent candidate, Chris Foley. Foley was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Foley was defeated by LNP candidate Anne Maddern. Maddern lost to Labor’s Bruce Saunders in 2015, and Saunders was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor does not have any kind of solid hold on the seat of Maryborough. The result will in part depend on how well One Nation is performing in Queensland at the state election, but in the absence of a strong One Nation campaign, the LNP could also be a threat to Labor here.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bruce Saunders Labor 14,208 45.2 +19.4
James Hansen One Nation 9,546 30.4 +23.7
Richard Kingston Liberal National 5,671 18.0 -13.7
Craig Armstrong Greens 1,102 3.5 +1.1
Roger Currie Independent 919 2.9 +2.9
Informal 1,237 3.8

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bruce Saunders Labor 16,497 52.5 +1.4
James Hansen One Nation 14,949 47.5 +47.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Maryborough have been divided into three parts. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the Maryborough urban area, and these booths have been grouped together. The remainder was split between booths to the north of Maryborough and those to the south.

Labor won a large majority (58.8%) of the two-candidate-preferred vote in Maryborough, while One Nation won comfortable majorities in the north (54.3%) and the south (60%).

The Liberal National Party came third, with a vote ranging from 14.5% in Maryborough to 21.4% in the north.

Voter group LNP prim ALP 2CP Total votes % of votes
Maryborough 14.5 58.8 9,139 29.1
North 21.4 45.7 6,057 19.3
South 20.4 40.0 1,321 4.2
Pre-poll 18.5 53.1 11,340 36.1
Other votes 19.1 50.3 3,589 11.4

Election results in Maryborough at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes between Labor and One Nation, and LNP primary votes.


Become a Patron!

24 COMMENTS

  1. I had the weekend in Maryborough last weekend.

    Some evidence of LNP campaigning Billboards and evidence of One Nation corflutes polluting the scenery. They seem to like derelict buildings and fences for signage locations. Clive Palmer has plenty of Billboards up on Bruce Highway all very negative. He has a pro development policy but all that is evident is an anti Labor message. Maybe he is trying to get back into LNP.

  2. This is another seat, like Keppel where I think Labor shouldn’t get too comfortable.

    The LNP have a much better candidate here than last time and has somewhat of a profile as a former Councillor so I expect their vote to increase at the expense of both Labor and PHON but not enough to leapfrog PHON into second.

    With LNP preferences, PHON could snatch this one and make it an upset on election night.

  3. Actually the lnp candidate is a current councillor. Couple that with One Nation losing James Hanson (popular local councillor), the LNP vote should improve alot

  4. Be careful of your predictions its two elections in a row comments in this seat have written off Bruce Saunders. In fact one comment even went as far last election to suggest the two party preferred vote will be between LNP and One Nation. It was so far from realty because the LNP had written off the seat before the election had been called. I think Saunders will be the favorite because he’s so popular. He’s kind of like Kerry Shine in Toowoomba North and Tony McGrady in Mt Isa. Regional voters who tend to be voting more for the candidate then they are enamoured with Labor.

    I also don’t think One Nation is really going to be advantaged in the political climate at the moment. The pandemic isn’t something that will look to favor One Nation. And there position of opening the borders will have some caution with voters.

    LNP coming off a primary vote of 18% in 2017 may a bridge too far to fill in one election.

  6. I think I’ve been swayed by various other commentators on here and Pollbludger but I have this done as a Toss-up between ALP and ONP. While I agree the LNP has chosen a good candidate, this is one electorate I can see the ONP sticking above (yes I know some of those voters). Maryborough has more industry to rely on although loosing some of that business to Ipswich would hurt. I still reckon ALP will hold on and I’ll ask my connections to keep a closer eye on the campaign for a wind either way.

    Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Lean ALP

  7. PO … The LNP have not ‘chosen a good candidate’ .. being a local councillor doesn’t necessarily mean someone is a good choice. In this case, the guy is a political novice who grapples with any concept or idea. Bruce Saunders on the other hand, has been a great local MP and his popularity probably hasn’t peaked yet. Saunders has worked hard to improve facilities and shows genuine concern for people.

  8. Peter Knopke
    I’m not having a go at you…..but !. What possible relevance let alone importance can the LNP candidate possibly have ? Sharon Lohse is going to take this. Unless Saunders is another RJ Hawke his popularity isn’t going to save him.

  9. Wine .. Saunders has won against the odds twice so a third term wouldn’t surprise. Very few gave him a chance in 2015 when he was 20/1 .. then in 2017 with the demise of optional preferential he was written off again but increased his primary and 2PP.

  10. Agree with Peter Knopke. It’s been reported that in a YouGov poll that One Nation polling has dropped 7% since the last state election in the regions from 21% to 14%. While I know that polling doesn’t necessary reflect seat to seat margins and always works in unison. That is just too big of a drop to be just ignored as a margin of error or an outright liar. The Pandemic with voters returning to the major parties and One Nation jumping the gun requesting the borders should stay open are likely factors behind the drop in support. Labor to retain.

  11. Saunders/Palaszczuk have just announced a $1 billion train building program for Maryborough … given that this is the town’s core industry, this will be of huge benefit to the area. This one announcement could have the effect of ensuring an ALP victory here … if there was a doubt, it may well have dissipated now.

  12. Well building trains in Maryborough has a lot more sense than building in India importing and then finding they do not fit as occurred under Newman. Neo-liberalism whether as practiced by Gods Labor or Newman Liberal governments is a disaster for Australian manufacturing. We need governments that will mandate Australian made for essential industries like rail, hospitals, tosses, schools or water supply.
    I would like to hear how Palaszczuk intends to ensure water supply. Only pony where LNP are ahead is Old Gair ALP government /DLP/ KAP Bradfield scheme.

  13. The NGR train factory being in India doesn’t have much to do with the very real design issues that the NGR sets had. (Prominently, that aspects of their internal layout weren’t disability-compliant. There’s no way, on a Qld train, that you can have a corridor past a toilet and have both those be wide enough to be wheelchair-accessible; nonetheless that’s how it was designed.)

    This is certainly an excellent announcement for Maryborough. Hopefully there’ll be a second order of say 30 in another few years, which would allow QR to finish replacing its oldest trainsets and accommodate growth.

  14. Andrew, for clarity, you might want to look at Hansard from 2011 (23rd of March) pp745 where the then MP Chris Foley for this area said:

    “ To that end, I want to put my hand up and say that, along with Andrew Dettmer, who previous speakers have spoken about, and two local chambers of commerce and business, we have fought very hard to ensure that rail contracts keep coming the way of our excellent facility of Downer EDI and Bombardier. Unfortunately, Downer EDI recently saw fit, for reasons best known to itself, to withdraw from that tender process. I think that was an utterly perplexing decision. However, it was a business decision and I will continue to work with the minister and the Treasurer to see if we can facilitate a way for Bombardier to be able to continue on with the tender as it is, simply without Downer EDI. Bombardier is the largest train manufacturer in the world with a very healthy balance sheet, so I urge the minister to do whatever she can to protect those jobs of Maryborough workers.”

    The “She” at the time was a transport minister by the name of Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    We can talk about the merits of Bombardier, and their contract, but 2011 Hansard clearly shows the wheels were well in motion prior to the Newman government continuing the contract.

  17. Not just superb pork barrelling which it is but Superb government keeping jobs in Provincial Queensland.

  18. Could be considered pork barrelling .. but .. I have a couple of mates who work there and this has been in the pipeline for months .. so, more strategic timing of an inevitable announcement. Whatever it is, Andrew is right jobs in Provincial Qld are crucial and Labor is delivering.

  19. Tried for years to contact Downer EDI each time they were awarded a multi million dollar contract.
    Do they take part in a tender process? Who knows ? you are in QLD.
    Is there any jobs ? from 2006 to 2019 No reply, no reply, no reply etc.
    However, if you know someone or are a family friend , councillor, or have a special unspoken nepotismic membership in this town, step right up and get a job no skills or experience required!

  21. Local News reporting plenty of action at the Polling Booth. An altercation between a Labor worker and the One Nation candidate. According to the Labor worker who is an ex-serviceman, he politely asked the One Nation candidate if she could stop the Australian flag on her table dragging on the ground as he thought it was disrespectful. She seemingly did not comply and started to accuse the worker of intimidation and this developed into an argument. She complained to the channel 7 reporter that Labor had too many workers and they took photos of her (or something). Not to be outdone, the LNP guy accused another Labor worker of stealing a sign. This worker is apparently taking legal action over the allegation.
    When I voted the other day, Labor had the Local Member and six workers – two on each approach and three in the middle at their table. The LNP and One Nation candidates were both solo and that would get to you after 10 days when you are so out-numbered by an obviously well organized team of workers.
    I’ll be most surprised if Labor lose.

  22. I have manned booths solo for DLP, KAP, Australian Country Party, National Party and independents and have managed to get on with all parties other than One Nation , Anning and Glen Lazarus team.
    50 election
    Average 2 days per election
    Average 3 other parties
    Average 3 workers per party

    This means I have worked with 900 individuals and in that time I have had to have one worker removed from booth and had altercations with a Glen Lazarus fellow. I have witnessed unacceptable behaviour maybe by a dozen others . 14/900 =1.5% .
    Meaning that 98.5% of workers on booths get along peacefully with each other.I have been given shelter from Rain and Sun by both ALP and Coalition, cold drinks by candidates other than my own. Generally it is new parties that have problems, with inexperienced booth workers and captains. One Nation and Anning worjkers isolated themselves. I might add that biggest problem was inexperienced workers from minor parties turning up 5 minutes before polls opening to find that good spots have been grabbed.
    Thanks to all my opponents who remained civil for 50 elections.
    As Tony Z recently wrote it is not uncommon for volunteers to hand out each other’s HTV during toilet breaks.
    In fact a Family First lady brought Morning Tea for all of volunteers at Bribie Island Orchid Society pre poll on most days. It is normally the voters who are aggressive.in 52 elections the electoral commission sag have at times Ben officious but only one occasion were they wrong. Both One Nation and ALP campaign mange need to sit down and tell the two in dispute to cool it.

  24. winediamond October 5, 2020 at 8:07 pm
    Peter Knopke
    I’m not having a go at you…..but !. What possible relevance let alone importance can the LNP candidate possibly have ? Sharon Lohse is going to take this. Unless Saunders is another RJ Hawke his popularity isn’t going to save him.

    Thanks for this Post winey, it’s the best prediction of the Election .. as I type Saunders has 55% of the vote and Lohse is a poor third on 15% and 69% of the vote has been counted. A brilliant victory by a quality local member. He must be an Enneagram Type 8.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here